Monday, September 14, 2009

* Oil falls $1,


* Oil falls $1, extending Fri sell-off as dollar rebounds
* Questions about demand recovery cast shadow over commods
* Investors wait for stocks to drain, consumption to recover (Updates prices, adds details)
By Osamu Tsukimori

TOKYO, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Oil fell more than a dollar toward $68 a barrel on Monday as a rebound in the beaten-down U.S. dollar and nagging concerns that prices may have run ahead of market fundamentals extended last week's late sell-off.
The U.S. currency rallied sharply against a basket of currencies as investors covered short positions following last week's slide of 2 percent to its lowest in a year, fuelled by funds flowing into riskier assets such as stocks and commodities and a drop in U.S. Treasury yields.

Kuwait has signed a $2.5 billion contract

KUWAIT, Sept 14 Kuwait has signed a $2.5 billion contract with General Electric Co and Hyundai Heavy Industries to build and operate a power plant in the north of the country, state news agency reported.
The Subbiya power plant, which is expected to come on stream in the summer of 2011, will produce 2,000 megawatts, or 20 percent of the country's current power output, KUNA said on Monday, citing Kuwait's Minister of Electricity and Water Badr al-Shuraian.
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"The contract includes importing and assembly of six gas turbines that will produce 1,320 megawatts in addition to six steam turbines generating 700 megawatts," al-Shuraian said.
Last month, Kuwait chose General Electric ( GE - news - people ) to build the Subbiya plant after it had the lowest bid for about 760 million dinars ($2.65 billion).
The U.S. giant beat other pre-qualified firms for the projects such as Germany's Siemens ( SI - news - people ), Japan's Mitsui & Co and Marubeni Corporation ( MARUY.PK - news - people ), Spain's Iberdrola ( IBDRF.PK - news - people ) Ingenieria Y Construccion, and Canada's SNC-Lavalin Limited.
In April, Kuwait issued a new tender to build turbines for the plant in the north of the country, saying it expected the cost to be far less than earlier estimates in excess of 700 million dinars.

FOREX-US dollar falls to near 1-year low as stocks rise


FOREX-US dollar falls to near 1-year low as stocks rise.
NEW YORK, (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell to a one-year low against major currencies Friday as optimism about the outlook for the global economy after strong Chinese data, encouraged investors to favor higher yielding currencies and stocks instead of the safety of the greenback.
Currencies such as the euro, sterling and the Australian dollar rose as stocks rose in Asia and European shares headed for a sixth consecutive day of gains. U.S. stock indexes were little changed at the opening.
The U.S. dollar was on track for its steepest weekly decline in almost four months against a basket of currencies and the euro, which hit a 2009 high of $1.4627 earlier.
The U.S. currency, perceived as a safe haven, tends to fall as investor risk appetite increases.
"Dollar selling momentum has picked up with the rise in equities, and some solid data out of China and the U.S. recently," said Win Thin, a currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. "Euro/dollar broke through important key levels this week and the forex market will keep testing new highs on the pair in coming days."
In morning trading in New York, the InterContinental Exchange's dollar index <.DXY., a gauge of the greenback's performance against six other major currencies, was down 0.2 percent on the day at 76.68, having earlier traded down at 76.51, its lowest since late September 2008.
The euro was 0.1 percent up on the day at $1.4603 , and about 2.0 percent higher on the week.
Solid data out of China added to the view the global economy is on the road to recovery , while questions about the dollar's long-term value also added to the negative sentiment towards the currency.
A U.S. Treasury official on Friday said it makes sense for China to diversify its huge stockpile of foreign exchange reserves, which analysts said fed the bearish dollar sentiment that has firmly taken hold this week. .
The dollar was down 0.9 percent on the day against the yen at 90.91 yen , having hit a seven-month low earlier of 90.69 yen, according to Reuters data, while the yen also gained versus the euro, which fell 0.8 percent to 132.68 yen .
YEN, RESERVE DIVERSIFICATION
Some analysts said yen strength may reflect the repatriation of profits by Japanese exporters ahead of the end of the first half of the Japanese fiscal year.
They also noted the focus in times of strong risk appetite may now be firmly on selling the dollar, rather than on selling of currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc which were previously seen as the funding units of choice in carry trades.
In carry trades investors borrow in low-yielding currencies to finance purchases of higher-yielding assets.
"The yen has been surprisingly strong," said Thin at Brown Brothers. "Repatriation and some dollar-funded carry trades may be contributing to its gains."
Sterling rose 0.3 percent to $1.6695, just below a one-month high of $1.6742 , while the Australian dollar gained 0.1 percent to $0.8642 .
Concerns about central bank reserve diversification returned on Friday after Russia's central bank first deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev told Reuters the central bank would like to diversify its basket of forex reserve currencies by adding two or three more.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Kicking the bailout habit

Kicking the bailout habit
2:50pm: The FDIC wants banks to stand on their own two feet, but withdrawing insurance on big checking accounts won't be popular. More

Detroit's jobless economy: Startups take root
12:47pm: Hundreds turn out for tips on how to open their own business, and city shows off its support network for entrepreneurs. More

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Bernanke the risk taker

Bernanke the risk taker
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke launched an unprecedented battle against the financial crisis, but the risks he assumed have him walking a tightrope.


.In nominating the Federal Reserve chairman to a second term, President Obama on Tuesday compared Bernanke's efforts to avert a second Great Depression to FDR's "bold, persistent experimentation" to get the country out of the first one.
But Bernanke's efforts weren't easy -- or without critics.
The Fed has taken on unprecedented risk: It took on a trillion dollars of troubled assets, slashed interest rates, bailed out financial industry titans and launched more than a dozen expensive lending programs.
Bernanke is sure to face a lively confirmation debate in the Senate before his first term is up in January of next year.
"The problem with all of the risk is that it has created an unhappiness with Congress," said Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor. "It's going to create problems for Bernanke in his confirmation, but these things had to be done to prevent an absolute meltdown in the economy."

HONG KONG

HONG KONG -- Steel-to-property conglomerate Citic Pacific Ltd. posted Wednesday a 43% fall in its first-half net profit on lower contributions from its special steel division, and said it will continue to divest noncore assets while boosting investment in core businesses.
The firm, which suffered massive losses from Australian dollar positions that went sour late last year, said its net profit for the six months ended June 30 was 2.47 billion Hong Kong dollars ($319 million), down from HK$4.36 billion a year earlier. The result was higher than the average HK$1.90 billion forecast of three analysts surveyed earlier by ...

Falling Equities Lift Dollar And Yen,"


Falling Equities Lift Dollar And Yen,"By Nicholas Hastings
LONDON (Dow Jones)--A 2.6% fall in the Shanghai Composite Index set the tone in currency markets in Europe Tuesday, with the dollar and the yen benefiting as safe havens.
The euro, with other high-yielders, were the main losers as the market waits to see if U.S. consumer confidence data later in the day lives up to expectations.

The downturn in market sentiment started late in New York Monday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending a marginally 0.03% higher.
Analysts said the overall mood of global markets has been depressed by remarks from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao that monetary policy will stay loose because the economy faces new difficulties.
This appeared to inject fresh jitters into financial markets when concern about the global recovery was already on the rise.
In Japan, the Nikkei lost 0.8% on the day while in China the Shanghai Composite fell as much as 5.5% at one stage before rebounding just before the close to end down just 2.6%.
Although news that Israel had been one of the first economies to start hiking interest rates didn't have a direct impact on market sentiment, it contributed to the impression that the era of low recession-driven global rates is coming to an end. Norway is expected to be the first G10 country to follow Israel.
A report that Japanese three-month Libor rates have fallen under those in the U.S. for the first time in 16 years also helped focus market attention on relative yields and push the yen higher against the dollar.
Some analysts suggested that the downbeat mood could be extended if new consumer confidence data in the U.S. fails to live up to expectations. The data from the Conference Board is forecast to show the confidence index rising to 48 from 46.6.
However, James Knightley, a senior economist with ING Financial Markets, said a sharp fall in the University of Michigan's confidence survey and a disappointing retail sales report for July will make the market wary of weakness.
"If so, this may add to concerns regarding the sustainability of the recovery story," he said.
By 0915 GMT, the dollar had fallen to Y94.33 from Y94.52 late Monday in New York, according to EBS.
The euro was down at $1.4280 from $1.4299 and at Y134.73 from Y135.15.
The dollar was also up at CHF1.0624 from CHF1.0616 while the pound was down at $1.6365 from $1.6412.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

GCI clients can trade


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To login, browse to gcitrading.com/mobile on your cell phone or WAP device. From there you will be able to select your account type and enter your Username and Password. Mobile trading capability is automatically enabled for all GCI demo and live traders.
If you do not yet have a demo or live account, get a free username and password here.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Is The Euro


Is The Euro zone Lagging Behind?
The economic growth remains fragmented and volatile, as the recovery process is just in its early stage and consumes are low in the U.S. The U.S. dollar is rebounding from the lows and the trend might continue for the short/medium term.
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U.S.: consumes still low As the economy is slowing moving out the worst recession since WWII, data remains fragmented and volatile. In June, the personal consumer expenditure (PCE) rose 0.4% (+0.2% expected) from +0.1% in May following the surge in spending on non-durable products. Personal income, at the contrary, slumped 1.3%, as social security payments run out of steam. However, numbers should improve tangibly in 2010, albeit the recovery process could be the shortest of the past seventy years. In fact, some productive capacity might have been lost forever, while consumes could decline along with the rising saving rates. The job market remains weak overall. In July, 247,000 people (320,000 expected) were out of work. Nevertheless, the number of unemployed was less then June¡¦s 443,000 and May¡¦s 303,000. In addition, the hours worked are increasing and might anticipate some new hiring along the way. The work week hours rose to 33.1 from 33.0. In effect, an increase of the global trade will help the industries in the coming months. After four months of improvements, the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index declined to 46.4 in July from 47.0. In reality, the contraction of the index was minimal overall. The trend still points toward a recovery for the sector, since factory orders rose 0.4% (-0.7% expected) after having moved up 1.1% in May.

The U.S. dollar

The U.S. dollar is gaining momentum over weak economic data. The trend should continue over the short/medium term. However, the longer term picture stays bearish for the greenback
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U.S.: The trade balance to widen further?The FOMC meeting of last week was basically a non-event, since the Fed reiterated the need to keep rates low for an extensive period of time, albeit it sees the U.S. economy stabilizing. Rates should again rise in the second part of next year, despite expectations mounting for an increment in December. In fact, after WW2, the Federal Reserve started to increase rates six months following the top in the unemployment rate, which, at present time, might happen sometimes this year or at the beginning of the next. Finally, the Fed has apparently no intention of expanding the purchase of USD 300 billion of longer-term U.S. bonds after the October’s target. With inflation so low, the consumer price index was down 2.1% year-on-year in July, a “wait and see” approach could be the best solution. In reality, economic data remains volatile.

The ECB meets

The ECB meets this week in Frankfurt (Germany). Rates should stay on hold once more, as the recovery process is just beginning in Europe. The U.S. dollar, in the mean time, is still at key support levels against major currencies.
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U.S.: Consumer confidence weak.The process might be slow and the recovery could not take the form of the classical V shape. However, the worst should be over for U.S. economy, after more than one year of losses. Leading indicators increased last month for the third consecutive time, while some corporate earnings have risen above expectations. In addition, manufacturing industries have reduced inventories and orders have improved, despite the sector remaining very volatile. In June, durable goods new orders slumped 2.5% after having increased 1.3% in May and 1.4% in April. Nevertheless, excluding transportation, orders would have jumped 1.1%. The real estate market has found a bottom at current levels and the increase of sales could boost consumer confidence. New home sales moved up 11% in June to 384,000 units. The up move was well distributed among all the U.S. regions with the exception of the South where sells declined 5.3%. Inventories are now at 8.8 months of supply from 10.2 months, while building permits, a forecasting indicator, rose almost 9.0%.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

India aims to up tax target

India aims to up tax target, phase exemptions-finmin
NEW DELHI, Aug 11 (Reuters) - India will aim at a higher direct tax receipts target of 4 trillion rupees ($83 billion) from the budget estimate of 3.7 trillion rupees in the year to March 2010, the finance minister said on Tuesday.
He told tax officials at a conference that tax rates should remain moderate and exemptions should be gradually phased out.
'Given the likely impact on government finances due to unanticipated drought, I will like to suggest a further upward revision in the direct tax collection target,' he said.
($1=48 rupees)
(Reporting by Rajkumar Ray)
((rajkumar.ray@thomsonreuters.com; +91-11-4178-1006; Reuters Messaging: rajkumar.ray.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: INDIA ECONOMY/FINMIN
(If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com)
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Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved.
The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.

Israel finmin supports cbank

Israel finmin supports cbank halt to daily FX buys
JERUSALEM, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Israeli Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz said on Tuesday he supported the Bank of Israel's decision to halt a 13-month-old programme of buying $100 million a day of foreign currency that was aimed at preventing the shekel from strengthening.
While the central bank stopped buying the $100 million of forex on Monday, it said it would still continue to intervene in the event of 'unusual movements' in the market.
'I think that the Bank of Israel is acting judiciously and seeing all the various needs. We, of course, consult with them,' Steinitz told Israel Radio.
'We talked about the Bank of Israel's steps in recent weeks. I think that the transition from a permanent daily commitment to buy dollars and the occasional intervention based on the situation, is generally correct,' he said.
After gaining early in the session, the shekel was flat against the dollar at 3.87 per dollar in early afternoon trade.
Steinitz said the aim of the government was to support Israeli exports -- nearly half of economic activity -- which have been hurt badly by a drop in global demand and a stronger shekel. He noted that the state is also providing guarantees to exporters.
He said that the ministry was considering taxing speculators or raising taxes on foreign currency deals from overseas investors but such measures had failed in other countries.
'The dollar is weak everywhere. It's our job to do all we can to support the exporters, as far as is reasonable and possible,' Steinitz said, adding that he won't 'determine a limit to (a fall) in the dollar rate'.
On the state of the economy, Steinitz said he hoped that the ministry will be able to upwardly revise its forecast from a 1 percent contraction in 2009.
'We'll wait another month or two to see that the good data, which are improving, from the last month or two, are indeed stable before risking new assessments and over-optimism,' he said. 'The most we can say is that we are on the right path.
There are signs of stabilisation and optimism in Israel and around the world.
'That is an encouraging development, but we must be cautious. I hope and believe, like the majority of international agencies that rate us, that we will indeed return to growth in 2010 and even the beginning of significant growth.'
(Reporting by Steven Scheer; editing by Stephen Nisbet) Keywords: ISRAEL SHEKEL/FINMIN
(steven.scheer@thomsonreuters.com; +972 2 632 2210; Reuters Messaging: steven.scheer.reuters.com@reuters.net)
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The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.

Pakistani stocks end lower; rupee flat

Pakistani stocks end lower; rupee flat
KARACHI, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Pakistani stocks fell on Tuesday as investors booked gains after the country's main index gained nearly 2.7 percent the previous day, dealers said.
The Karachi Stock Exchange's (KSE) benchmark 100-share index ended 0.46 percent, or 37.56 points, lower at 8044.50 points on turnover 178.58 million shares.
The KSE-index has now gained 37.2 percent this year after losing 58.3 percent in 2008.
'We saw some profit taking in some of the blue chip companies since the market rose in the previous two sessions,' said Sajid Bhanji, a dealer at brokers Arif Habib Ltd.
The KSE-index rose 2.67 percent on Monday to its highest close this year as the International Monetary Fund increased its loan to Pakistan by $3.2 billion to a total of $11.3 billion.
The IMF said it would immediately release $1.2 billion to Pakistan under its economic programme, first agreed in November last year to avert a balance of payments crisis.
The rupee closed flat at 82.86/96 to the dollar, unchanged from Monday's close.
The rupee has lost 4.5 percent this year after losing 22.12 percent in 2008.
(Reporting by Sahar Ahmed; Editing by Victoria Main)
((sahar.ahmed@thomsonreuters.com; +92-21 568 5192; Reuters Messaging: sahar.ahmed.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: FINANCIAL PAKISTAN/
(If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com)
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Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved.
The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.

Euro / US Dollar Reversal is the Real Deal

Euro / US Dollar Reversal is the Real Deal
A recent divergence between the Euro futures contract and the US dollar index is just one piece of evidence suggesting that the EURUSD has reversed course. Additional evidence includes a long term cycle, wave structure at multiple degrees of trend, and recent momentum considerations.Full Article

Thursday, August 6, 2009

India Prepares EU Trade Complaint

By JOHN W. MILLER in Brussels and GEETA ANAND in Mumbai
India plans to file a complaint with the World Trade Organization alleging that the European Union allowed big pharmaceutical companies to use the bloc's tough patent laws to have national customs agencies detain generic drugs in transit to developing countries, according to India's commerce secretary.
On more than 20 occasions since late last year, border inspectors in the Netherlands and Germany have held up Indian medicines used to treat AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, heart conditions and other ailments, saying they violated patent laws in the EU, although the drugs weren't intended for sale there, according to EU and Dutch customs officials and to lawyers for Indian pharmaceutical companies.
At the request of companies including Sanofi-Aventis SA, Novartis AG and Eli Lilly & Co., the drugs were then detained for periods that extended for as long as eight months, according to letters sent by the companies to customs officials and reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
Indian generics makers say they have had to divert shipments at higher cost to transit hubs outside the EU, and to hire lawyers to defend their right to have the drugs shipped safely to their destination.
Dutch customs officials are still holding on to the Indian generics drug giant Cipla Ltd.'s shipment of a schizophrenia medicine seized in November, according to Cipla and Lilly.
"We see this as an attack on the Indian generics industry," says Rajeev Kher, joint secretary of commerce in India, adding that he is preparing a complaint that India will soon file at the WTO.
Getty Images
This handout picture released by the Spanish police on June 09, 2009 shows fake Viagra pills seized after the arrest of four people suspected of importing tens of thousands of the fake versions of the impotence drug in Alicante. Spanish police said they have seized more than 9,000 fake Viagra pills produced in China and India and sold over the Internet.
EU officials say their national customs agencies have the right to enforce intellectual property laws in their countries, and they deny any violations of other WTO rules. The EU is "complying with its WTO obligations," says spokesman Michael Jennings.
Some trade experts say India may have a good chance of winning. The EU argument that goods in transit must comply with local regulatory requirements is shaky, says Frederick Abbott, an international trade legal expert at the Florida State University.
The world's biggest pharmaceutical companies often hold patents on their medicines in the U.S. and EU, which have some of the toughest intellectual property laws. Many of these companies' patents don't apply in developing countries, which have kept patent protection weaker in an effort to keep prices low for their far poorer populations. The U.S. isn't a major transit hub for generics, and doesn't claim that patent laws should apply to goods in transit to other countries.
Weaker patent laws in developing countries allowed India and others to develop a booming business making and selling copies of branded pharmaceuticals, known as generics, both internally and to other nations. Indian pharmaceutical exports, mostly generics, grew to $4.9 billion last year from $1.5 billion in 2003, according to Global Trade Information Services.
An EU regulation adopted in 2003 tasks national customs offices with policing intellectual-property laws on goods entering or transiting through their posts. The goal, EU officials say, was to take a bite out of the world's $500 billion annual trade in counterfeit goods, which are illegal copies of products masquerading as the real thing, usually of low quality.
The law wasn't applied aggressively to pharmaceuticals until last year. The EU launched a crackdown aimed specifically at "counterfeit" medication, EU officials say. However, generic drugs, which are regulated replicas of brand-name drugs, are getting caught in the same dragnet.
On Oct. 8, Dutch customs agents at Schipol Airport in Amsterdam intercepted a 50 kilogram, $52,500 shipment of generic blood-thinner clopidogrel, according to papers supplied by the manufacturer, Chandigarh, India-based Ind-Swift Ltd.
One ingredient identified the drug as under patent to Sanofi-Aventis of France. Following the EU's 2003 regulation, Dutch customs seized the drugs on behalf of Sanofi.
In two letters, a lawyer for Sanofi told the recipient in Colombia, a company that sells pharmaceuticals called Betalactamicos SA, that they had violated Sanofi's EU patent rights. The lawyer invoked a July 18, 2008, Dutch court ruling that the same intellectual property rules must apply to goods in transit as if they had been "manufactured in the Netherlands."
The second letter, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, was titled "counterfeit clopidogrel" and threatened "further action" if the goods weren't destroyed and the claim wasn't settled out of court. In April, the claim was settled. Sanofi consented to the drugs' release in May, six months after the shipment was seized, according to Ind-Swift and Sanofi.
A spokesman for Sanofi said the company doesn't comment on cases involving other pharmaceutical companies.
Ind-Swift has since changed the route of all of its shipments, sending them instead through Singapore or Malaysia at double the cost, says N.R. Munjal, vice chairman of Ind-Swift.
The European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations said in a statement that EU countries have the right "to stop products that they suspect may be counterfeit from entering the supply chain."
In November, Dutch officials seized two shipments from Mumbai-based Cipla, one of capsules of the Alzheimer's disease medicine rivastigmine and another of tablets of the antipsychotic medicine olanzapine, according to Cipla and Dutch customs officials.
Novartis, manufacturer of rivastigmine, asked Cipla to sign a letter admitting that it had infringed on the European company's patents and promising that Cipla wouldn't do so again, Cipla and Novartis said.
Cipla refused, saying the company believes a shipment in transit can never infringe on an EU patent, said Patsy Jeffery, who handles legal affairs at Cipla.
The shipment, bound for Peru, was detained for five months, after which Novartis agreed to allow the medicine to continue on its journey. A spokeswoman for Novartis, Lisa Gilbert, says the company allowed the drugs to be released after it became clear they were headed for Peru, where there would be no patent violation.
The Peru-bound shipment of olanzapine, the schizophrenia treatment that is one of the biggest-selling medicines in the world, is still being held in the Netherlands. Cipla is trying to negotiate the release of the medicine with Lilly, the patent holder in the Netherlands. The medicine has been held for more than eight months, Ms. Jeffery said.
A spokesman for Lilly, Jamaison Schuler, says the company is discussing with Cipla how to "amicably settle this dispute." In general, he says, the company believes customs should check generics in transit to make sure they're not counterfeit and they don't violate patent laws.
Dutch officials say they were merely doing their jobs. "We subscribe to the rights of developing countries to have access to this medication," says Ruud Stevens, a spokesman for the Dutch economics ministry. "But we have to enforce EU patent law."
After India files its complaint, the WTO could, after a nine-month investigation, dismiss the case, or rule that India has the right to impose retaliatory tariffs on the import of goods from the EU.

Australian Dollar Up Late As Jobs Market Surges In July


SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--The Australian dollar was stronger in late Asian trade Thursday as comments from the Chinese central bank offset earlier gains made after surprisingly robust domestic jobs data.
Analysts said the currency is likely to be well bid as European trade gathers pace but will likely face strong selling on any rallies into the US$0.8500 level.
Market participants are awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia's August quarterly statement on monetary policy and U.S. Department of Labor's July non-farm payrolls, both due Friday.
At 0600 GMT, the Australian dollar was quoted at US$0.8436, up from US$0.8423 late Wednesday. Against the Japanese yen, it was quoted at Y80.255, up from Y79.955.
JPMorgan Chief Foreign Exchange Dealer Philip Burke said that while direction for the Australian dollar has been mixed in the local session, European traders are likely to latch onto the buoyant employment data and take the currency back up to recent peaks.
"I would be surprised if we break out onto an US$0.85 handle tonight...but a strong payrolls number should see us up through US$0.85 if we haven't already reached it," Burke said.
Burke said the US$0.8475 level has provided some firm resistance for the currency and is likely to continue to do so until a fresh catalyst pushes it higher.
Also providing some caps for high-yield currencies is euro selling by Asian sovereign entities around the US$1.445 level.
ANZ Senior Currency Strategist Katie Dean said the Australian dollar is unlikely to breach recent peaks ahead of the RBA data or payrolls.
"The market doesn't want to get itself too long going into the RBA tomorrow, so we would expect recent ranges to hold," Dean said.
Jobs numbers earlier Thursday pushed the currency up to an intraday peak of US$0.8460, although rallies up this level have been fairly well sold into.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed 32,200 new jobs were created in July, sharply raising the possibility that the central bank will increase interest rates before the end of the year.
The unemployment rate remained steady at 5.8%.
The labor market expansion is the largest monthly rise since June 2008, defied expectations of a loss of 20,000 jobs and affirms the RBA's decision Tuesday to shift to a neutral policy bias.
However, comments from the People's Bank of China - that while it will maintain its moderately loose monetary policy amid concerns over the sustainability of its economic recovery, it will fine-tune its policies as needed - sent the currency down to US$0.8403. The Aussie has since clawed back most of these losses.
The market focus on the RBA statement Friday will zero in on the extent of the central bank's inflation and gross domestic product growth forecasts.
Already, market participants are pricing in 39 basis points of interest rate hikes by December and 23 basis points by November.
Bond futures weakened on the back of the employment figures but have held around recent lows.
September three-year bond futures were eight ticks lower at 94.85 while 10-year futures were 5.5 ticks weaker at 94.345.
JPMorgan Senior Interest Rates Strategist Sally Auld said that while the RBA has shifted to a neutral policy, the selloff at the short end of the bond curve may be overdone.
She said while "strategically, the market remains in a bearish trend...tactically, we note the possibility for a reasonably significant short squeeze."
Auld suggests investors look to buy the three-year contract at 94.87 and target moves to 95.20 with stops at 94.77.

FOREX: Ringgit Opens Stronger Against US Dollar

FOREX: Ringgit Opens Stronger Against US DollarBy: Ramjit-->
KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 6 (Bernama) -- The ringgit opened stronger against the US dollar on Thursday as the greenback lost its attraction in global markets, a dealer said.At 9.10am, the local unit traded higher at 3.4910/4950 against the greenback compared with 3.4950/5000 at yesterday's closing.The US dollar weakened on firmer crude oil prices, said the dealer who added that this week's sharp rally in the oil market was driven by improved economic recovery prospects."The greenback saw some sell-off today and we expect further selling-through in the near-term," he said. The bullish outlook for the stock market also supported sentiment, he added.The ringgit also strengthened against the Singapore dollar to 2.4350/4401 from 2.4355/4414, the yen to 3.6705/6762 from 3.6735/6807 and the British pound to 5.9357/9443 from 5.9366/9465.However, it weakened against the euro to 5.0319/0391 from 5.0290/0372 yesterday.-- BERNAMA

FOREX-Dollar near 9-month low vs sterling, Aussie jumps

By Satomi Noguchi
TOKYO, Aug 6 (Reuters) - The dollar was steady near a nine-month low against the pound on Thursday ahead of policy decisions by the Bank of England and European Central Bank, while the Australian dollar jumped after data showing unexpected gains in employment.
Thursday's data surprised the market by showing Australia added 32,200 jobs in July, far better than forecasts for a 20,000 fall in employment, while the jobless rate held steady at 5.8 percent, adding to signs of an economic recovery.
The strength in the Aussie was tempered by a drop in full-time jobs and falling Chinese shares, but the market took these numbers as increasing the likelihood of an early rise in interest rates.[ID:nSYD536208]
In contrast, the New Zealand dollar fell after data showed the country's jobless rate climbed more than expected to 6.0 percent for the second quarter, a nine-year high, backing views its central bank will keep interest rates at a record low well into 2010. [ID:nWEL524980]
"The market cannot find a factor which could break the uptrend in the Aussie," said Hideki Amikura, deputy general manager of the forex section at Nomura Trust Bank.
"But that said, tomorrow's U.S. jobs report is expected to show weak numbers which may be the potential catalyst to dampen economic recovery hopes, and reverse recent gains in assets including stocks and yen crosses," Amikura added.
The Australian dollar jumped as high as $0.8462 on the Reuters dealing system, a touch closer to an over 10-month high of $0.8471 hit earlier this week, before trading at $0.8414, nearly flat from late New York trade. Traders said the Aussie's gains were cut as China stocks slid 3 percent .SSEC on liquidity worries.[nBJD001031]
The New Zealand dollar extended earlier falls to $0.6700 NZD=D4, down 0.5 percent on the day and further away from its 10-month peak of $0.6764 struck the day before.
BOE AND ECB EYED
The dollar fell versus the euro on Wednesday to its lowest point since December after data showing U.S. private employers cut more jobs last month but at the slowest pace since October, offering a glimmer of hope the labour market is stabilising.
Sterling held firm near a more than nine-month high against the dollar above $1.70 struck the previous day ahead of the BoE's expected decision and announcement on interest rates and its quantitative easing programme later on Thursday. Continued...

Friday, July 31, 2009

ForexLive New York forex wrap-up; Freaky Friday for dollar

ForexLive New York forex wrap-up; Freaky Friday for dollar
* US Q2 GDP falls 1.0% slightly better than expected, consumer spending weak; Q1 revised much weaker, down -6.4% * NY City NAPM rises to 48.3 from 44.8 * Chicago PMI rises to 43.4 in July from 39.9, slightly better than expected * IMF: Dollar moderately overvalued * JP Morgan raises Q3 GDP forecast to 3% * Cash for clunkers success has economists forecasting a jump in US auto production in second half with positive GDP impact * Obama: Guardedly optimistic economy has turned quarter * ECB Sources: ECB preparing further non-standard measures in case rebound does not take hold- Market News International * US equities ended essentially unchanged, rise... Full Story

EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks at 10 month high, Latam forex up vs USD

EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks at 10 month high, Latam forex up vs USD
* Emerging market stocks rise, touch fresh 10-month high * LatAm currencies gain on U.S. dollar after GDP data * Credit spreads widen as U.S. Treasury market rallies * Credit Suisse cuts Russian stocks to underweight By Daniel Bases NEW YORK, July 31 (Reuters) - Emerging market stocks rose
in quiet end-of-month trade on Friday as investors took to
heart a report showing U.S. economic activity contracted less
than expected in the second quarter. Latin American currencies rose against the U.S. dollar onposition squaring and a touch of increased risk appetite after
the better-than-expected U.S. second-quarter gross domestic
product data. "The GDP data still plays into a positive risk tone. I
don't think the market reacted negatively to that," said Flavia
Cattan-Naslausky, emerging markets currency strategist at RBS
Securities in Greenwich, Connecticut. "Currencies are slightly bid, but mostly I think this has
to do with squaring up into month-end. The market is, well,
very dead," she said. A healthier U.S. economy helps drive demand for goods and
services from lower-cost emerging markets. In the currency market, Brazil's real BRBY edged up 0.21
percent to 1.8710 per U.S. dollar. Mexico's peso MXNMEX01
rose 0.11 percent to 13.2250 per U.S. dollar. Higher commodity prices also favored emerging markets where
much of the raw materials are mined, drilled and shipped.
Copper touched a 10-month high and crude oil prices gained
$1.27 a barrel to $68.21 CLc1 with the help of the weaker
U.S. dollar. The North American trading session kicked off with a report
showing the U.S. economy contracted at a 1.0 percent rate in
the second quarter. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast GDP
falling at a 1.5 percent rate. However, the data also showed a drop in consumer spending
of 1.2 percent, after a rise of 0.6 percent in the first
quarter. The drop in spending is a concern for Mexico, which
sells 80 percent of its exports to the United States. The consumer data did help lead to a run-up in U.S.
Treasuries, causing the spread over emerging market sovereign
bonds to widen even though those credits were little changed on
the day. The benchmark JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus
11EMJ.JPMEMBIPLUS showed yield spreads wider by 11 basis
points, to 397 basis points. Investors appear to be holding firm to the recent rally in
asset prices, even as its intensity tapers. MSCI's emerging markets stock index gained 1.6 percent
.MSCIEF while the Latin American stock index rose 1.4 percent
.MILA00000PUS. Funds-tracker EPFR Global said investors poured $9.5
billion into equity funds around the world this week, the
highest weekly inflow since June 2008. [ID:nHKG97502] Russia's benchmark RTS stock index is up 21 percent
in the last 18 days from its recent low, while up 61 percent
for the year to date. Credit Suisse downgraded Russia to a 5 percent underweight
stance from a 5 percent overweight in its model portfolio on
Friday, according to a report it sent clients.

FOREX: Ringgit Likely To Be Firmer Against US Dollar Next Week

FOREX: Ringgit Likely To Be Firmer Against US Dollar Next Week
KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 1 (Bernama) -- The ringgit is likely to be firmer against the US dollar next week riding on expectation that the local bourse will continue to stage positive performance, dealers said.They said the ringgit was likely to move between 3.51 and 3.54.A dealer said the ringgit's gain would be driven by strong demand from investors who were expected to put their funds back into the currency market.On week-to-week basis, the ringgit strengthened against the greenback to 3.5210/5240 from 3.5300/5340 last week.Against the Singapore dollar, it was firmer at 2.4411/4455 from 2.4565/4633 last week and against the yen it strengthened to 3.6811/6862 from 3.8092/8150 previously.The ringgit was little changed against the British pound to 5.8227/8298 from 5.8223/8312 previously and rose against the euro to 4.9611/9664 from 5.0323/0400 previously.-- BERNAMA

WORLD FOREX: Dollar Ends Broadly Lower In Choppy Trading


By Don Curren Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
TORONTO (Dow Jones)--The dollar ended markedly lower across a range of currencies Friday as stock market strength, risk appetite and month-end flows combined to propel investors to its rivals.
The dollar was able to rally briefly in morning trading after the first estimate of domestic product data for the second quarter was released, but surrendered its gains as stocks rallied.
"We saw the dollar doing a little bit better after the GDP report, which was mainly due to the fact that equities got weaker, and the dollar sold off as equities went stronger again," Vassili Serebriakov, currency strategist at Wells Fargo Bank in New York.
That latter move set the tone for the rest of the day, with the dollar remaining in retreat in sometimes volatile trading.
After remaining in positive territory for most the session, stocks shifted to a mixed profile in late trading with narrow losses in some indexes and modest gains in others.
Technical factors also supported the dollar's rivals on Friday, analysts said.
"I think there's a whole host of things that have come together to push the U.S. dollar lower," said Camilla Sutton, senior currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto.
"The same story remains intact, which is that we continue to see fairly violent moves, with an overall bias towards U.S. dollar weakness," she said.
The euro gained as high as $1.4280, reversing its midweek sell-off, while the pound gained as high as $1.6730. The dollar fell as low as Y94.50 before recovering modestly in quieter afternoon trading.
Late Friday afternoon, the euro was at $1.4255 from $1.4071, and at Y134.95 from Y134.35. The dollar was at Y94.66 from Y95.50 late Thursday, according to EBS. The dollar was at CHF1.0690 from CHF1.0875. The U.K. pound was at $1.6697 from $1.6493.
The first estimate of second quarter U.S. GDP data presented something of a conundrum for markets. Overall GDP declined at a seasonally adjusted 1.0% annual rate, better than the 1.5% expected by economists, but consumer spending, which traditionally accounts for some 70% of U.S. growth, slid by 1.2% in the quarter after rising 0.6% in the first.
The worrisome signs in the U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product reported earlier Friday underscored calls for a different safe haven than the dollar, boosting the yen and Swiss franc, some analysts said.
But Wells Fargo's Serebriakov said the data suggest an improving outlook growth that should ultimately prove supportive for the U.S. dollar.
The move into riskier assets was boosted by a closely watched measure of economic activity in the Chicago area, which rose to its highest reading since September 2008, bolstering expectations the recession will end this year.
Month-end flows were also considered supportive for non-U.S. currencies Friday.
"Stocks gained in the month of July, and so portfolio managers tend to need to hedge, and sell more dollars based on the gains we've experienced," said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com.
Those stock gains are in dollars. As a result, money managers have larger positions in dollars and have to get rid of them at the end of the month.
Traders may have been encouraged to sell the dollar after the release recently of an International Monetary Fund report that said the U.S. dollar is "moderately overvalued."
This came after an IMF report on the euro zone Thursday that said the euro was somewhat overvalued, which had caused the common currency to dip versus the dollar.

China's forex reserves top 2.13 trillion dollars in June


China's forex reserves top 2.13 trillion dollars in Junenewkerala.com - Jul 15, 2009 11:34:33up 17.84 percent year-on-year, the People's Bank of China said Wednesday. About $185.6 billion were Beijing, July 15 : China's foreign exchange reserves topped 2.13 trillion dollars by the end of June,

Man acquitted of forex irregularities after 16 years

Man acquitted of forex irregularities after 16 yearsSify - Jul 19, 2009 15:27:16the Delhi High Court.Justice Anil Kumar allowed Prabhat Kumar Srivastava's petition, which challenged A man booked 16 years ago for illegally possessing foreign currencies has finally been acquitted by

TCS to halve forex hedging tenure


TCS to halve forex hedging tenureSify - Jul 22, 2009 07:12:20Mumbai: Tata Consulting Services will halve the tenure of its hedging contracts in future due to the continuing unpredictability in the rupee market. Most ReadGovt puts on hold BSNL-MTNL mergerOverseas

Forex reserves rise by $2.27 billion


Forex reserves rise by $2.27 billionBusiness Line - Jul 24, 2009 23:39:37Mumbai, July 24 Foreign exchange reserves increased by $2.27 billion to $266.187 billion for the week ended July 17, according to figures released in the Reserve Bank of Indias weekly statistical supplement.

Margins, forex gains benefit IOC

Margins, forex gains benefit I O C
Margins, forex gains benefit IOC Countries such as India are dependent on imports to meet their oil needs and are particularly vulnerable to price volatility New Delhi: Indias largest oil marketing company,

Forex reserves up by USD 1,524 mn


Forex reserves increased by USD 1,524 million to touch USD 267,711 million as on July 24, 2009, mainly due to rise in foreign currency and assets collections on a weekly basis.As per the weekly statistical supplement of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released on July 31, 2009, foreign currency assets increased by USD 1,519 million to stand at USD 256,657 million.During the same period, the reserve position in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased marginally by USD 5 million to stand at USD 1,253 million. The gold reserves remained steady at USD 9,800 million.Foreign currency assets expressed in USD include the effect of appreciation or depreciation on non-US currencies (such as Euro, Sterling and Yen) held in reserves